In 1979, the German musicologist Hans-Joachim Schultze published an essay showing this Minuet (and its companion in g-minor) were written by Christian Petzold and not by Bach. I sent him an email, and this is his reply:
My essay is called “A ‘Dresdner Menuett’ in the second piano book of Anna Magdalena Bach. With references to the transmission of some works from chamber music of Bach", published in the Bach-Jahrbuch of 1979, pg. 45-64.
In it, I reviewed a manuscript from 1726 which covered, among other piano pieces of the 17th and the 18th century, a “Suite de Clavecin par C. Petzold”. Those movements are called: Prelude - Allemande - Courante - Sarabande - Bourrée - Menuet alternative- Menuet 2 - Gigue - Passepied alternative – Trio. The "Menuet alternative" and "Menuet 2" are the two pieces being questioned, in G-major and g-minor, which are also found in the piano-book of Anna Magdalena Bach. In that one, they appear without declaring the name of the composer.
As for the identity of "C. Petzold", the only one to be thought of must be the Organist Christian Petzold (1677-1733) from Dresden, at whose brand new Silbermann Organ J. S. Bach could give various concerts in 1725 and 1731. In 1733, Wilhelm Friedman, oldest son of J. S. Bach, became Petzold's student.
The second Clavier-Book from Anna Magdalena Bach was in fact begun in 1725, but contains quite a few entries from the years 1730 and 1740, for example a short Generalbass-instruction for Johann Christoph Friedrich, Bach´s son, who was born in 1732. The Petzold-Suite is - at least in many parts - a kind of a variation suite; that is, the themes of all phrases vary in the same basic material. The incipits of the phrases, which are published in my Bach-yearbook of 1979, should make it clear that several phrases - including the G-Major Menuett - are somehow related to each other. Because of that, I consider neither the possibility nor the necessity to twist around the "famous" Menuett-phrases and credit them to J. S. Bach.
You will have seen every now and then that pieces that earlier were named after "J. S. Bach" (because of lack of other indications), have now been assigned to other composers. For example: The Aria "Bist du bei mir", which is contained in the Clavier-book of Anna Magdalena Bach, too, originates from Gottfried Heinrich Stölzel´s (1690-1749) opera "Diomedes" who was performed in 1718 in Bayreuth. These two Menuets are yet another example of the same type of situation.